Errata – Angry Arab News Service

25May09

You may have heard of the Angry Arab News Service. Yesterday, Asad Abu Khalil, author of the blog, stated the following:

March 8 and their supporters are denying the obvious*: that Gen. Aoun has lost support among Christians since 2005. I saw one survey in Metn* which indicated that Aoun support among Maronites stands at no more than a third while support for the various groups of March 14 stands at antoher third.

Professor Abu Khalil is referring to the Kataeb portal of Now Lebanon. Now maybe, just may be that could be true, but what was absurd was what came afterwards, and forgive me, I couldn’t remain silent on such a fallacy:

This is a substantial reducation of support for Aoun. But the many who defected from Aoun may stay home and not vote for March 14. It may be class: (here it comes) Professional Christians seem to support March 14, while lower middle class and poorer Christians seem to support Aoun.

Really?? Based on what exactly does it seem so?

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5 Responses to “Errata – Angry Arab News Service”

  1. 1 S

    More realistic estimates would put the FPM’s decrease in support to no more than 10-15% of the party’s 2005 numbers. Even though a lot of Christians are not big fans of the choices Aoun made over the last 4 years, they are reluctant to follow the Christian pillars of the 14ers, because of their wartime and post-taef endeavors. I don’t think class plays a role here, since a closer look at syndical and university elections would reveal the FPM still getting relatively the same numbers of Christian votes. On all cases, an independent survey is necessary to address the impact of class on political support.
    The change in FPM support will be most noticeable in Metn with the defection of Murr. His support base of 5,000-10,000 might be capable of shifting the balance to the 14ers’ side.
    @ Blacksmith Jade: I find most stuff posted on blindly partisan/propagandist sites (e.g. your blog) to be a load…

  2. The funny thing is that I’ve heard FPM supporters say the exact opposite.

  3. How about based on M14 winning almost all professional syndicate elections … and there’s a good reason too. Michel Aoun has pretty much transformed himself into the anti-thesis of longstanding moderate Christian political goals and objectives, in-addition-to/including moving forward with desecularization along lines drawn out by the Taef (an accord he is consistently working to undermine and reverse, to the detriment of Christians).

    The only people who still follow Michel Aoun today are those too short-sighted, sectarian, and/or petty to see beyond their own noses.

    And for the record, most the stuff put up on the Angry Arab News Service is a load … I’m actually surprised he got that part right!

  4. 4 Salim

    As’ad is probably partly right. I have noticed the same thing. Upper-class Christians, those who are well-off, those who speak French and read L’Orient-Le Jour, as well as those who work in the banking sector, profoundly hate Michel Aoun, who remains popular among the middle classes.

    As for the poorer and least educated members of society, I think they are more divided. Many support the Lebanese Forces for sectarian reasons or because they’re not very sophisticated. Others remain faithful to Aoun.

    Class does play a role, but without serious studies, we can only make observations on the basis of our own experiences.

  5. красиво, сделал! Благодарю!!! (beautifully done! Thank you!)


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